The AI Arms Race and Its Impact on Strategic Stability in the International System

Abstract

Abstract:

   The international system is undergoing a profound strategic transformation driven by the technological revolution in artificial intelligence (AI) and its military applications. AI has evolved from a mere efficiency tool into a critical "force multiplier," redefining sources of power and the nature of international conflict. The AI arms race, particularly between the US and China, has emerged as a central feature of 21st-century geopolitical rivalry, focusing on lethal autonomous weapons and AI-enhanced command and control systems. This race poses fundamental challenges to traditional strategic stability based on nuclear deterrence logic. The extreme speed and uncertainty associated with intelligent systems threaten to undermine deterrence concepts and crisis control, increasing the risks of unintended escalation. This research aims to analyze the impact of this race on strategic stability concepts and test the ability of the traditional theoretical framework (balance of power) to accommodate these radical transformations

pdf (Arabic)

References

المصادر باللغة العربية:

1. الاتحاد الأوروبي. 2023. قانون الذكاء الاصطناعي (AI Act). بروكسل.

2. جمهورية الصين الشعبية. 2019. وثيقة المبادئ حول حوكمة الذكاء الاصطناعي. بكين.

3. اللجنة الأمنية الوطنية للذكاء الاصطناعي (NSCAI). 2021. التقرير النهائي. الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية.

4. مجلس الدولة الصيني. 2017. خطة التنمية للجيل الجديد من الذكاء الاصطناعي.

5. معهد بروكينغز. 2022. تقرير حول الانفصال التكنولوجي والتداعيات العالمية. واشنطن: معهد بروكينجز.

6. معهد ستوكهولم لأبحاث السلام الدولي (SIPRI). [د.ت]. عنوان التقرير. ستوكهولم.

7. منظمة هيومن رايتس ووتش . 2023. تقرير حول الأسلحة المستقلة القاتلة. نيويورك منظمة هيومن رايتس ووتش.

8. وزارة الدفاع الأمريكية. 2023. مبادئ الذكاء الاصطناعي المسؤول في المجال العسكري. واشنطن: البنتاغون.

المصادر باللغة الانكليزية:

1. (Belfer Center). 2020. The Great Tech Rivalry: China vs the U.S. Harvard Kennedy School.

2. (CSIS). 2021. The AI Race: The U.S. and China's Competition for AI Dominance.

3. (DoD). 2023. DoD Responsible AI Strategy and Implementation Pathway.

4. (SIPRI). 2022. SIPRI Yearbook 2022: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security - Chapter on AI and Military Capabilities. Oxford University Press.

5. Allen, Gregory C., & Kania, Elsa B. 2021. The AI Defense Priorities of the U.S. and China: A Comparative Assessment. Center for a New American Security (CNAS).

6. Boulanin, Vincent (SIPRI). 2019. "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk: Volume I - Euro-Atlantic Perspectives." SIPRI Publications.

7. Buchanan, Ben. 2020. The Hacker and the State: Cyber Attacks and the New Normal of Geopolitics. Harvard University Press.

8. Center for a New American Security (CNAS). 2020. Stability in the Age of AI: A Strategic Framework.

9. Geist, Edward M., & Lohn, Andrew J. 2018. "How Might Artificial Intelligence Affect the Risk of Nuclear War?" RAND Corporation. (PE-237-OSD).

10. Gilli, Andrea, & Gilli, Mauro. 2019. "Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: The Limits of Imitation, Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage." International Security, 43(3), 141–189.

11. Herfel, William, & Lieber, Kier A. 2021. "AI and the Bomb: The Prospect of Autonomous Nuclear Systems." International Security, 46(3), 146–181.

12. Horowitz, Michael C. 2018. "Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power." Texas National Security Review, 1(3), 36–57.

13. Horowitz, Michael C. 2019. "When Speed Kills: Artificial Intelligence, Military Decision Making, and Crisis Stability." Journal of Strategic Studies, 42(7), 764–788.

14. Johnson, James. 2020. "Artificial Intelligence & Future Warfare: Implications for International Security." Defense & Security Analysis, 35(2), 147–169.

15. Johnson, James. 2020. "Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Warfare: A New Paradigm for Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and Risk." The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters, 50(3), 19–35.

16. Kendall, Frank (Secretary of the Air Force, USA). 2022. "Operational Imperatives: Delivering the Air and Space Forces Needed to Deter and Win." Air & Space Forces Magazine.

17. Lieber, Keir A., & Press, Daryl G. 2020. The Myth of the Nuclear Revolution: Power Politics in the Atomic Age. Cornell University Press.

18. RAND Corporation. 2020. Artificial Intelligence and Strategic Stability.

19. Scharre, Paul. 2018. Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War. W. W. Norton & Company.

20. Stanford University - Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC). 2022. The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability: A Three-Framework Analysis.

21. The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 2021. The Military Balance 2021: Chapter - Technology and the Changing Character of Warfare.

22. U.S. Department of Defense, Joint Artificial Intelligence Center (JAIC). 2020. AI Ethics Principles and Practices.

23. United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR). 2021. Algorithms and Armaments: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Nuclear Risks.

24. Brzoska, Michael, et al. 2022. "Autonomous Systems and the Stability of Nuclear Deterrence." Journal of Peace Research, 59(4).

25. Cummings, M. L. 2017. "Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare." Chatham House Report.

26. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI). (2021). Final Report.

27. The White House. 2023. Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights and related executive orders on AI.

28. U.S. Department of Defense. 2023. Data, Analytics, and AI Adoption Strategy.

29. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). Official website and program announcements.

30. State Council of the People's Republic of China. 2017. "A Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan" (Translated by CSIS).

31. State Council. 2015. "Made in China 2025" plan.

32. China's National Defense White Papers (various years, e.g., 2019).

33. Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) - Georgetown University. 2021. "Tracking AI Investment: A Preliminary Look at Federal Data" and "China's AI Ecosystem" reports.

34. Committee on the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW).