The Return of Military Coups in Africa: Causes and Possible Consequences

Abstract

    Over the past two decades, the African continent has witnessed a remarkable resurgence of military coups, following a period of relative decline in the 1990s and early 2000s. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the key factors behind this new wave, as well as an exploration of the potential repercussions for political, economic, and social stability on the continent. The findings indicate that the causes are both internal and external. On the one hand, the fragility of political structures, the weakness of constitutional institutions, and the absence of a peaceful transfer of power have created a climate conducive to coups. Rampant corruption, human rights violations, and high rates of poverty and unemployment have also played a role in stimulating public unrest, creating an environment conducive to military intervention. On the other hand, international geopolitical rivalries and conflicts over natural resources have contributed to the increased likelihood of coups, as some regional and international powers seek to prop up military regimes that serve their interests. The potential outcomes range from deepening instability and a regression in the democratic transition process, with negative repercussions for economic growth and investment attraction, to the possibility of reform opportunities emerging if some coups are linked to realistic transitional programs that lead to the building of more robust institutions. The study concludes that the continuation of this phenomenon poses a direct threat to Africa's development trajectory, necessitating a strengthening of the role of regional and international organizations in supporting democracy and good governance.