Geopolitical Analysis of the Lebanese-Israeli Conflict: Future Scenarios and Prospects for Resolution and Settlement

Abstract

Abstract

    This research provides a comprehensive geopolitical analysis of the Lebanon-Israel conflict, focusing on its historical, military, economic, and social dimensions, along with possible future scenarios. The conflict’s roots trace back to the early 20th century but intensified after the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948, followed by destructive wars, most notably the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon and the 2006 July War. These confrontations severely impacted Lebanon’s infrastructure, economy, and social cohesion.The study emphasizes Hezbollah’s pivotal role as a non-state actor resisting Israeli occupation, thereby challenging traditional military power dynamics in the region. It examines regional and international alliances, including U.S. support for Israel versus Iran and Syria's backing of Hezbollah. The economic ramifications of the conflict on Lebanon are assessed, highlighting issues such as declining foreign investment, displacement, and unemployment.

Furthermore, the research explores potential future trajectories of the conflict, ranging from military escalation to peaceful settlement. It underlines the significance of international mediation, especially through UNIFIL, and the role of recent diplomatic initiatives, such as the Abraham Accords, in fostering regional stability. By offering a nuanced analytical framework, the study contributes to a deeper understanding of the conflict and provides policy-relevant insights for decision-makers, researchers, and mediators interested in resolving one of the region’s most protracted disputes.