The Impact of Geopolitical Shifts on Russian–Libyan Relations since 2011: A Study of Instruments and Strategies

Abstract

Abstract

This study examines the impact of geopolitical variables on Russian-Libyan relations in light of the political and security transformations that Libya has experienced since 2011, which have resulted in changes in the balance of power and the emergence of multiple regional and international actors competing for influence in the country. The study aims to analyze the nature of Russia’s strategy toward Libya and identify the main instruments employed by Moscow to protect its interests and strengthen its presence in North Africa. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach to examine geopolitical variables and their implications for Russian-Libyan relations, in addition to a historical approach to trace the development of these relations from the Soviet era to the present. The findings indicate that Libya’s strategic geographical location, its significant oil resources, and the political and security divisions that emerged after 2011 constituted major factors encouraging Russia to rebuild and expand its presence in Libya. The study also demonstrates that Russia’s strategy has not relied on a single instrument; rather, it has combined military, economic, political, and diplomatic instruments while maintaining channels of communication with various Libyan actors. Since 2011, Russian involvement in Libya has passed through several stages, beginning with the restoration of influence, followed by the consolidation of influence, and eventually moving toward securing Russian interests. The study concludes that Libya represents an important geopolitical position for Russia in the Mediterranean and North Africa, as well as a potential gateway for strengthening its presence in the Sahel region. However, Moscow’s ability to expand its influence remains constrained by international and regional competition, Libya’s internal divisions, and Western pressure.