Abstract
Abstract:
This study examines the role of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in shaping the trajectory of the Russia–Ukraine war across two interconnected levels: the security dimension—intelligence, reconnaissance, cyber operations, and capacity-building—and the political dimension, including alliance management, strategic influence, and sanctions diplomacy. The research adopts a temporally comparative case-study approach divided into three phases, employing the smart-power framework to analyze the interaction between covert and overt instruments in allied decision-making and Russia’s counter-responses. Ultimately, the study seeks to explain how intelligence flows, ISR/OSINT capabilities, and clandestine policies enhanced Ukraine’s operational effectiveness, increased the strategic costs for Russia, and reshaped European power balances and deterrence dynamics
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