Mastering Cold War Conflict and the Logic of Outcomes: International Competition Below the Threshold of War

Abstract

 If we wish to articulate the tension between determinism and human initiative in the matter of competition, we must conclude that competition is inevitable. The first aspect of this paradox is an expression of a proven probability, a matter of statistical order. Certain wars can be avoided, but the absence of war is not solely due to a decrease in their frequency; rather, the potential for conflict has been overshadowed by greater competition. The second aspect is a hypothesis within the context of diplomacy, whose task is to manage the hierarchy of escalation during competition and to expand the range of available opportunities. This means guiding a state's trajectory along a unidirectional path, contrary to the movements of other competing powers. Although each power is confident that its interests are generally aligned with those of other powers/actors, its own interests take precedence.