The Sudanese Civil War after 2023: Structural Causes and Repercussions

Abstract

This study seeks to deconstruct the dimensions of the Sudanese civil war that erupted in April 2023. Moving beyond superficial explanations that confine the conflict to the ambitions of military leaders, it highlights the convergence of Sudan's inherited institutional fragility with the distortions of the political transition path as a primary driver of the current form of conflict, By applying structural conflict analysis tools and a political economy approach, the research analyzes the root causes of the crisis at local, regional, and international levels, revealing the role of a "rentier war economy" and the proliferation of parallel armies in creating a political deadlock, The study concludes that the repercussions of the war are no longer limited to the humanitarian catastrophe and the unraveling of the social fabric, but have extended to the collapse of the nation-state and the transformation of Sudan into a magnet for transboundary security threats in the Sahel and Horn of Africa regions. Ultimately, the study concludes that any prospect for a solution requires dismantling the economic and security architecture that fuels the war, rather than a mere top-down political settlement